Skip to main content

Supreme Leader Miscalculates Trump Administration’s MovesNuclear 20 June 2018

Supreme Leader Miscalculates Trump Administration’s MovesNuclear 20 June 2018


Iran Focus
London, 20 Jun - Last month, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States was withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, that was agreed in 2015. Iran was supposed to curb its nuclear program and the crippling economic sanctions that were in place were lifted.
However, Trump was not satisfied that the nuclear threat has been curbed and he listed a number of belligerent acts that Iran is involved with as his justification for exiting the deal.
Earlier this month, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, addressed a crowd at a commemoration event marking the anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini – the founder of the Islamic Republic. He said that to make Iran endure sanctions while living with “the [nuclear] restrictions already imposed” is a “disturbing dream”. He emphasised that this will not be accepted by Iran.
This was no doubt a warning to the EU that it must ensure a work-around to the sanctions and that it must get Trump to soften his stance, otherwise Iran too will pull out of the deal and resume its nuclear activities.
The Supreme Leader of Iran has said on a number of occasions that he does not think war is an option for the United States. It seems that he is under the impression that the US would not attack Iran. Firstly, Iran believes that the US personnel in the region are vulnerable and don’t have very much intelligence on Iran. Secondly, Iran believes Israel is vulnerable. Finally, Iran thinks is can close the Strait of Hormuz – an extremely important chokepoint with regards to oil transit.The Supreme Leader clearly has not looked into history to see that wars have been started for far less. Furthermore, President Trump is different to his predecessors in that he is not scared of making decisions that may seem illogical to most. He is not following conventions or international norms and his presidency, so far, has been full of unpredictability.

Furthermore, the people of Iran need to be taken into account. At the end of last year, a major uprising started and protests have continued since. The discontent sweeping across Iran is not temporary – the people are adamant that regime change needs to happen. They are supported in their desire for freedom from the grip of the mullahs by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the main opposition.

On 30th June, the NCRI will be holding its annual gathering in the outskirts of Paris. It will discuss the political situation that is evolving rapidly and it is certain that Khamenei’s risk of trying to predict Trump’s thoughts will be criticised.

The Supreme Leader seems to think that the US, in fear of a war being launched against it, will just bow down to Iran (in the same way that former president Barack Obama did). But one thing is clear – he is completely underestimating the biggest threat to Iran. The people’s discontent and resistance.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

French FM Visits Iran to Talk Ballistic Missiles and Syria

French FM Visits Iran to Talk Ballistic Missiles and Syria05 March 2018 Iran Focus London, 05 Mar - The French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, has arrived in Iran to talk with the country's president Hassan Rouhani, Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and the Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, according to Iranian state TV. Talks are expected to focus on Iran’s involvement in the Syrian Civil war and Iran's ballistic missile program, which both Le Drian and French President Emmanuel Macron have criticized Iran's missile program in recent weeks, with Le Drian stating that Iran's ballistic missile capacity worried France “enormously". In response to Iranian claims that their ballistic missile program is peaceful, Le Drian said: "Having such tools is not uniquely defensive, given the distance they can reach." The French Foreign Ministry even issued a statement ahead of the trip, which said Le Drian ...

Iran-Back Hezbollah Controls LebanonTerrorism

Iran-Back Hezbollah Controls LebanonTerrorism 21 February 2018 Iran Focus London, 21 Feb - In recent years, when the US has made statements against Iran-backed Hezbollah, they have often followed this up with support for the Lebanese army and security forces, but it is becoming increasingly clear that there is little, if any, distinction between the Lebanese state and the Iran-backed terrorist group. When US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Beirut, last Thursday, Hezbollah had created two new problems with Israel: a southern border wall and the debates over oil and gas extraction. This caused Tillerson to make the US position on Hezbollah very clear. Hezbollah is a terrorist organisation with no difference between its military and political wings. He advised that Hezbollah and Iran were creating tensions in the region in order to destabilise the Middle East. Iran seeks the destruction to distract others from its own problems, both domestic and international. It not only ta...

19 Million Dollar Scam in Tehran Sparks Protests19 June 2018

19 Million Dollar Scam in Tehran Sparks Protests19 June 2018 Iran Focus London, 19 Jun - In the Gisha area, a builder pre-sold several housing units that were under construction to several people simultaneously. After issuing a tracking code, the builder fled with over 80 billion tomans (approximately 19 million USD). On Monday, June 18th, a group of the betrayed home buyers staged a protest against the million-dollar scam of the Gisha housing construction in Tehran, Iran. A protester spoke about the details of this million-dollar fraud. “The housing maker, who at the same time has two real estate consultant offices in the Gisha area, was abusing access to the information system of the real estate sales by tampering the postal code contained in tracking code system, issued multiple letter of credits with official code tracking codes for various units and presold each unit at the same time to several individuals.” He added, “These plundered buyers trusted the letter of credits which ...